国际直接投资理论的新进展

• The outbreak and spread of Coronavirus (Covid-19) will negatively affect global foreign direct investment (FDI) flows. With scenarios of the spread of the epidemic ranging from short-term stabilization to continuation throughout the year, the downward pressure on FDI will be -5% to -15% (compared to previous forecasts projecting marginal growth in the FDI trend for 2020-2021). 

• The impact on FDI will be concentrated in those countries that are most severely hit by the epidemic, although negative demand shocks and the economic impact of supply chain disruptions will affect investment prospects in other countries. 

• More than two thirds of the multinational enterprises (MNEs) in UNCTAD’s Top 100, a bellwether of overall investment trends, have issued statements on the impact of Covid-19 on their business. Many are slowing down capital expenditures in affected areas. In addition, lower profits – to date, 41 have issued profit alerts – will translate into lower reinvested earnings (a major component of FDI).

1、冠状病毒（Covid-19）的爆发和传播将对全球外国直接投资（FDI）流量产生负面影响。由于流行病 的传播范围从短期稳定到全年持续，外商直接投资的下行压力将为-5％至-15％（与先前预测的2020- 2021年外商直接投资趋势的边际增长相比） ）。 2、 尽管对需求的负面冲击和供应链中断的经济影响将影响其他国家的投资前景，但对外国直接投资的影响将 集中在受疫情影响最严重的国家。 3、 贸发会议百强企业（总体投资趋势的领头羊）中，超过三分之二的跨国企业发表了有关Covid-19对他们业 务影响的声明。许多人正在减慢受灾地区的资本支出。此外，较低的利润（迄今为止已有41家发布了利润 预警）将转化为较低的再投资收益（外国直接投资的主要组成部分）。

宏微观OFDI理论PPT